Technical Papers
Read more technical papers on Money Management
Biting the Bullet may be the best way to calculate a stop loss  - by Marcus Padley

A lot of investors are unfortunately put off using stop-losses by the image of complex arithmetic and the need to buy technical software. And they are sort of right.

 

But there is more to stop-losses than that. Yes you can invent and monitor complex formulas that purport to spit out the perfect stop-loss price, but the truth is that only 10 per cent of a stop-loss's value is delivered by using the ''right'' price and 90 per cent of its value comes from the fact that you had a stop-loss at all. A lot of investors miss this point, that stop-losses are not some finely tuned method of achieving an exact outcome, but are more important, as one of my subscribers clearly puts it, for their primary purpose which is ''to avoid a mega loss''. They are a loss-stopping mechanism and for the investor who habitually lets their losses run, it is more important to do it than to do it perfectly.

 

So this week I have a few other less calculated stop-losses that you might be interested in, including a few of my own stop-loss strategies, strategies that are more ''real life'' and that don't require a calculator, strategies that the man on the Clapham omnibus could easily operate for himself.

 

They include:

 

THE HOLIDAY STOP-LOSS I sell everything before I go on holiday. I once ruined a holiday by fretting about some dumb stock position when I should have been chasing my wife and kids around. Never again. Of course I'm not suggesting you do the same every holiday, it's just that when you have your head in the stockmarket all day every day, a holiday isn't a holiday unless you get it out. It is remarkably mind cleansing to sell everything.

 

THE INSOMNIA STOP-LOSS Sell anything that could possibly, or does, keep you awake. Anything that is disturbing you. I put a high value on my frame of mind and with only 252,522 hours left to live you can't really afford to waste any time being miserable, especially not about money. Anything that's making your life miserable has to go. If in doubt, get out.

 

THE OBJECTIVITY STOP-LOSS I used to operate a stop-loss that triggered when a loss was so big I felt I couldn't tell my wife. But when I confronted her with a loss once it turned out she had a bigger risk appetite than I did. Embarrassing as it is, my wife has guts. I bottle it before she does. So that little system has become redundant for us but for you, it may work. When things are about as bad as they can get, you need objectivity, which means you need to talk to someone. Use someone else as your stop-loss.

 

THE PUNCHING THE AIR STOP-LOSS This is an old brokers saying, sell anything that provokes you to stand up and punch the air in delight. As any stockbroker will tell you, euphoria means ''sell''. It means a price has exceeded your expectations and asking for more is greedy. You have to book the wins sometime. This is as good a time as any.

 

THE DENIAL STOP-LOSS Sell anything you get wrong. Making money by predicting share prices is not a science. You cannot pin down certainty. There are so many variables and so much sentiment in stock decisions that getting it wrong is to be expected, it is inevitable, and when you do get it wrong you have to act, not deny. There is no room for pride in stock decisions. Advisers telling clients that they shouldn't sell because they couldn't or wouldn't admit they had got it wrong in the global financial crisis cost billions of dollars and thousands of client relationships. We all get things wrong. Accept that and half the game (not losing money) is won.

 

THE SCHOOL FEES AND MORTGAGE STOP-LOSS Paying essential bills takes priority over trading I'm afraid.

 

THE DIVORCE STOP-LOSS Only triggered it once and if you can recognise the ''engagement ring thrown at you'' stop-loss first, you'll never actually need it.

 

Marcus Padley is a stockbroker with Patersons Securities and author of sharemarket newsletter Marcus Today. For a free trial, go to www.marcustoday.com.au