Changing Signals                                                                                
The most common Question asked is "why do the trading signals change?"  in 2007 & prior versions
The following are extracts from several user forums - the replies are from Support
 
Comment 1 Changing Signals
According to the Personality of Markets Theory, securities will exhibit different "personalities" from time to time. Trading systems will generate accurate signals for a certain personality, but what if the personality of the security changes? Obviously, the system that was being used before will not be as effective. This has been a historical problem with indicators and systems in the past, and that is why OmniTrader will update the back test period and re-optimize the security every so often. OmniTrader will go through the new data and find new systems and settings to generate signals based on the current personality of the security.

This is the reason you will see signals change in OmniTrader, and the reason that this change is an advantage in our program and an advantage to you as a trader.

So if you want your securities optimized, the signals are usually going to change. If you don't want your signals changing, your only options are to limit or prevent the optimization from being done.

You can limit optimization for all your symbols in your focus list to only be done at certain time frames. Click your ToDo list & click the Test Settings tab. You can change the "Optimize on ??? boundaries" option however you like.

If you want to make sure that a signal never changes for a particular security, add it as a position in your portfolio. Then under your ToDo list/Test Settings, click the "Do not optimize positions in portfolio" option. Then as long as you run your ToDo list, that symbol will never get optimized unless you click Forced for all symbols or close the position. See page 111-122 in the OT Guidebook for using the Portfolio feature.

Another reason your signals may be changing is because you are using Strategy Voting. Since Strategy Voting uses filters to choose Strategies with better recent performance, it can "switch" between strategies midstream. If you are using the All Strategies function this may occur. The way around this is to select an individual strategy instead of All Strategies or turn off the Strategy Filtering and just let all signals flow to the Vote Line. These filters can be seen by clicking Edit/Trading Strategy/Strategy Voting.
 
Comment 2 Changing Signals
I bought a new driver this weekend. It was a little expensive for a golf club, so I figured that I would be playing at the PGA level immediately. I guessed that it should do everything that a golf club can do, so I decided to use it for putting. I just couldn’t understand why my puts were flying off the green – this is a golf club, right? I disregarded educating myself on what a driver is designed to do, I neglected to practice with it or look at other tools that might help me, I just figured that by buying this club I would instantly become a successful golfer regardless of how I used the tool– here I come, Tiger!

As many successful users of OmniTrader know, the software is a prospecting tool. It was not designed as a mechanical system, it is not marketed as a mechanical system, and it should not be used as a mechanical system. OmniTrader is designed to help you find good trade opportunities. Signals change because the program is trying to find these opportunities every time you use it. The signals and statistics merely reflect the results of OT’s analysis, not of some mythical mechanical trading system. They should be used to help you make trading decisions, not perform the decision making process for you.

If you want to turn off the optimization, you can do so – it’s not difficult to do. Removing all forms of optimization and filtering will keep signals, but I can only guess at the results you will get by blindly following the entries and exits of a system that does not compensate for differences across various markets. The program was not designed to be followed blindly. It was meant to bring good candidates to your attention and provide you with tools to help confirm them. That’s it. It’s not the Holy Grail, it’s not a mechanical system, and it is not the complete answer to conquering the market for only a few hundred dollars.

If you want to write and test systems, there are definitely other software packages out there that will allow you to do so. OT's purpose is to automate the system testing and application process in order give us more time to concentrate on trading.

An automated system that consistently returned profits would indeed be welcomed. However, until one is created and distributed to the general public, we are left to use the tools we have and then apply our skills. Some will find a certain product useful, while others will find the help they need elsewhere. Yet our chance of using a tool successfully requires that we understand the tool and use it at least closely to the manner that it was meant to be used.
 
Comment 3  What is optimization?
When optimization occurs OmniTrader will re test all the systems for each symbol and select the top performers. For example, you have a symbol IBM in your focus list with the Default strategy selected. The Default strategy gets its analysis from 59 different systems each with its own set of parameters.

Each time optimization occurs, all 59 systems get tested again for IBM, and OmniTrader picks out the 6 systems (Default strategy uses 6) that had the best results. IBM will then continue to use those 6 systems whenever you run an analysis until re-optimization occurs.

When re-optimization occurs a new back test period begins. You should always know when your back test period begins and ends.

You can see the last time optimization was done in any chart by looking at the vertical hash mark line through your chart. (To make this visible in OT, click Chart Options/Chart & enable Mark the Back test Period.) Although the hash mark line is actually a full rectangle enclosing your back test period which you can view by expanding your chart period. The back test period is the data that OmniTrader uses to analyze systems/strategies to produce signals. When data is optimized, that rectangle is moved to the right. So for the IBM example, when the data is optimized, it will add a certain amount of periods to the front (newest data) of the back test period and drop the same amount of periods from the back (oldest data) of the back test period. This will give OmniTrader a whole new set of data to analyse.

Since OmniTrader is now looking at a completely new set of data and possibly using new systems to determine its analysis, your signals will change. Please keep in mind 2 things. The more recent your back test period is, the more accurate your signals will be. And the more you optimize, the more your signals will change. Now you can set the optimization to occur at Daily, Weekly, etc. boundaries as you see fit by clicking Edit/Trading Strategy/Test Settings tab.
 
Comment 4 Changing Signals
OmniTrader's purpose is generating signals. It automates the trading process by finding candidates. Once the initial signal has been generated, OT has done it's job. OmniTrader is not a "system" nor is it advertised as such. It is a tool for prospecting and includes tools to assist you in confirming and managing your trades. We also offer education to put these tools to use. Perhaps investing in some trading education would be beneficial.

Education and practice will help you to create a consistently profitable system of your own. There is no automated system that replaces human intelligence.