Trend reversals can occur at any time and one
of the important skills a trader must possess is the ability to
identify a reversal. It is easy to exit a position too early if
we over-anticipate a trend reversal, and just as easy to watch
our profits evaporate if we are too slow to exit the trade.
The use of a moving average is an excellent
tool to help us identify trend reversals. By plotting the proper
moving average on your charts, you need only to watch for price
to clearly penetrate the moving average to know that a reversal
is likely.
There are two kinds of moving averages that
are common to technical analysis - the simple moving average and
the weighted moving average. As a rule of thumb, keep in mind
that weighted moving averages are more reactive to the latest
price.
Our first chart shows a good example of how
moving averages assist us by not over-reacting to counter-trend
bars. Even though price action moves against the trend, the
moving average tells us that the current trend is still valid.
As long as the security is in trend, the moving average is
relevant.
If a security begins to consolidate (move
sideways in a tight range), the relevance of a moving average is
nullified. This is important to remember if you chose to
incorporate the use of a moving average in your trading. It is
not until we see a clear breakout of the consolidation pattern
that the moving average becomes relevant to us again.
Some important things to remember about moving
averages:
· Moving averages are good trend indicators
· Consolidation will nullify the relevance of a moving average
· A weighted moving average gives more emphasis to the most
recent data
· Low volatility securities can be effectively matched up with a
simple moving average
· High volatility stocks should use a weighted moving average