It is
widely accepted that the prime goal of management is to
maximize shareholder value. But the road to delivering
superior returns is not always
clear, for a few reasons.
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Metrics.
Corporate managers often perceive that
managing to achieve competitive advantage is hard to
balance with the demands of the stock market. Which
financial metrics effectively straddle the desires
of product markets with those of the capital
markets? How are those metrics linked
to executive compensation? Here it is necessary to have a firm grasp
of what
competitive advantage is and how the market reflects
it.
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Method.
Assuming that financial value drivers are properly identified, it is still critical to figure
out how to position the business to gain a
competitive advantage. Which market segments should
be addressed? What
customer characteristics are required to generate
profitable sales? How are products
or services delivered optimally? Addressing these
questions is the essence of
strategy.
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Market. Managers and investors
are not always
clear how prices are set in the stock market.
Is value determined by earnings growth? Sales gains?
Cash flow improvement? These questions require a
clear
understanding of how capital markets
work.
The facts
are that competitive advantage, strategy and capital
market valuations are intertwined.
The key findings in valuation theory are:
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The spread between return on invested
capital ROIC and the cost of capital WACC
(defined as "ROIC–
WACC") is a reasonable starting point for estimating
economic value creation.
The stock
market efficiently reflects this spread in stock
prices. Correlation analysis shows that high
ROIC–WACC-spread businesses are rewarded with the
high market values for a given growth rate.
This suggests that companies should seek
attractive returns first and growth second.
-
ROIC–WACC spreads
consistently form a cascade pattern ranging
from value creators to value destroyers. This spells
opportunity, because it shows
that satisfactory
returns are often achievable irrespective of where a
company is
domiciled or what industry it is in.
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The
key to a company’s ability to generate excess
returns is the strategy it pursues.
Companies must understand where and how they create
value. Notably, it is often the company that
understands where it does
not
have an advantage that does well.
More directly, strategy matters.
It is
important to define two key terms: competitive advantage
and strategy. Strategy (including formulation and
execution) is the stepping stone to capturing a
competitive advantage. Sustainability of competitive
advantage requires constant evolution and prudent capital
allocation.
Competitive Advantage
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Competitive advantage exists when a company’s sales
are greater than its total costs, including the
opportunity cost of capital. One measure of such
returns is a positive ROIC–WACC spread.
-
It should be stressed
that
competitive advantage is not a qualitative, but
rather a quantitative, issue.
By definition, a
business with a competitive advantage either
earns, or promises to earn, returns on capital in
excess of the
cost of capital.
-
Further, competitive advantage must be viewed in
absolute, not relative terms. A business that earns
higher returns than its peers do, but that does not
earn its cost of capital, can be said to have a
comparative advantage, not a competitive advantage.
-
A
company can gain competitive advantage in a number
of ways. For example, it can offer a product or
service that customers perceive to have superior
value, hence garnering a premium price.
Alternatively, a company can achieve a lower cost
position than its competition, allowing it to glean
excess returns.
-
The
ability to generate positive ROIC–WACC spreads also
relates to the structure
of the industry
in which a company competes. External factors—such
as the buying power of customers or the
leverage of suppliers—combine with internal
factors—including the intensity of rivalry—to define
industry structure.
-
While
some management teams often say they participate in
an industry that is
structurally
poor, the evidence shows that industry structure is
not
the
defining factor in value creation.
Ultimately, a company’s ability to generate excess
returns comes from the activities a company pursues
and how those activities fit
together and reinforce one another.
Strategy
-
A
successful strategy is one that allows a company to
capture a competitive advantage. Porter defines
strategy as “the creation of a unique and valuable
position, involving a different set of activities”. He stresses that operational effectiveness represents
excellence in individual activities while strategy
is the
appropriate combination of
activities.
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Strategic positions come in a number of forms. A
variety-based position is when a company produces a
subset of an industry’s products or services. When a
company serves the needs of a particular group of
customers, it is pursuing a needs based
position. Finally, an access-based position relies
on segmentation of customers by access channel.
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Porter argues that strategic positions are not
sustainable unless clear trade-offs are
made with other
positions. Trade-offs are necessary because of
potential inconsistencies in image, the
difficulty of executing within multiple positions
and limits
on management resources.
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Strategic failure often comes from an inability to
choose the correct strategic position. Managers may
be lured to expand their positions in the name of
growth.
An evaluation of company returns (as in the
following example) always
results in a finding that within a company’s portfolio
of businesses there will always be a mix of attractive
and unattractive operations.
Management can always work to improve returns within
company (through
asset purchases/sales, improved positioning); help
improve industry returns (through intelligent use
of game theory and signalling); and,
hence,
improve the overall economy.
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Completing an internal review of ROIC–WACC spreads is
important however the more pressing
issue
is whether or not these spreads are reflected in stock
price valuation.
CSFB tested this using
regression analysis. The independent variable is the
ROIC–WACC spread and the dependent variable is firm
value (market value of equity and debt) divided by
invested capital. Economic theory
suggests that
businesses earning above-cost-of-capital returns trade
at a firm value to invested capital ratio in
excess of one. Further, the higher ROIC–WACC
spread—holding growth
constant—the higher the warranted firm value/invested
capital multiple.
Their data support the economic theory.
The study showed the S&P Industrials had an
r squared of 79% (a high correlation) that is
the market recognizes and rewards positive
economic returns. |
The key
messages for corporate managers and
the investors that
evaluate them:
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Economic value creation should always be the guiding
light for management
decisions. In
free markets, above-average gains in shareholder
value are generally
a sign that collective corporate resources—both financial and
non-financial—are being allocated effectively. The
further fact that the stock market efficiently
capitalizes value creation lends further
credence to the importance of managing
for value.
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Growth should always be a second order consideration
behind value creation.
Managers often
assume that earnings growth is synonymous with value
growth.
However, this perspective is not supported by the
empirical data—there are projects that add
to accounting earnings while detracting from
shareholder value. Correct prioritization of value
creation/growth objectives allows managers to avoid
capital allocation mistakes. This task is further
complicated by the reality
that many compensation schemes disproportionately
reward growth versus value creation.
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A company can create shareholder
value if it invests below the average ROIC but above
WACC as long as such investments meet or exceed
market expectations.
But managers must be aware that the stock market is
forward-looking. As a
result, some
projects may be value creating (net present value
positive) but may disappoint the market,
leading to a lower stock price.
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ROIC–WACC spreads should be used with
some caution. This metric does
offer a reasonable snapshot of the past performance
and can serve as a good
proxy
for expectations. However, the calculation is based
on accumulated sunk
costs (invested
capital) and can be affected by the timing of
capital expenditures and chosen the depreciation
method. For this reason, you should use the NPV
positive
rule to the use of ROIC–WACC spreads.
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In
stock market valuation, both excess returns and
duration of excess returns are important. The latter
notion is often called “sustainable competitive
advantage.”
Consistently generating excess returns is
management’s greatest challenge.
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Strategy is the key. Excess returns
can be earned even in the
worst industry groups. What separates the winners
from the losers is how they
organize their activities. Managers of businesses
that generate sub-par returns
should constantly rethink the activities they
pursue.
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